Business process roadmaps have become a standard strategic planning tool in many industries. They provide an overview of competitive process technology development by mapping out gaps, barriers and bottlenecks to be overcome. The global microelectronics industry has long used the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS), produced by International Sematech in the USA. While ITRS provides a thorough and well prepared extrapolation of the current situation, the MEDEA+ Applications Technology Roadmap (ATRM) works the other way round by starting from envisaged future needs of microelectronics applications end users.
A new methodology was developed specifically for the ATRM approach. A core team consisting of high-level technical managers from companies participating in MEDEA+ first made an inventory of user needs in 2012. These needs were consolidated into a 'vision of life in 2012', which involved writing a number of scenarios that could only be carried out if certain functions were available. An overview was created of the technologies that would have to be developed to meet the requirements of these functions. These technologies were then classified and prioritised. Finally, the technologies were described and visually mapped into the roadmap as an ordered function of time.
The microelectronics industry serves many different industries ? from telecommunications and data processing through consumer and industrial products to automotive and defence applications. As many of the necessary technologies could be required in more than one sector, this creates allocation problems in the technology roadmap. A set of application environments was therefore defined to minimise any overlap in technologies while ensuring a sufficiently complete coverage of major applications.
Allocation of technologies to application environments was on the basis of where the strongest requirements would originate. Four environments were chosen :
Within Reach ? literally those applications involving the user directly, including in-body electronic processing and health-maintenance control systems;
Stationary ? relating to fixed equipment at home or in another environment;
On the Move ? relating to mobile applications, with a strong focus on automotive users; and
Common Infrastructure ? providing a backbone to support the three specific application environments.
Each application environment is subdivided into themes and sub-themes that are recognisable from a user perspective. For example, Within Reach is divided into energy, communications technology, wearable devices, user interaction and personal experience.
Identifying challenges and threats
The ATRM identifies a series of challenges that define the major technologies to be developed to satisfy relevant user needs in 2012 :
Advanced communications infrastructure for application products and services;
Application-specific 'smart' platforms to handle the increasing architectural complexity of applications and required infrastructure;
Strongly increasing role for hardware-defined software and reliable applications software;
Overriding importance of user-focused interaction capabilities for nearly all applications;
Production and management of mixed-media content;
Increasingly important role for international standards;
Expected explosion of miniaturised sensors/actuators and corresponding health-related personal applications;
Energy generation, transmission, storage and consumption as major boundary conditions for applications;
Security, safety and privacy issues penetrating into individuals? lives in both private and public domains;
Security, safety and privacy solutions that can be trusted, with new opportunities in digital rights management;
Increasing comfort in mobility and transportation; and
Assistance and convenience when driving.
A number of threats to Europe becoming a leader in system innovation on silicon were also identified. These include the dominance of a small number of US companies in areas such microprocessors and software that will make it harder for European companies to build up significant positions in related areas. Increasing difficultly in obtaining export licenses on advanced US products and services with security and/or privacy aspects could aggravate this problem. European R&D activities are also less focused and much smaller than in the USA in important new areas such nanoelectronics and biotechnology. Moreover, US R&D leads to new emerging business activities much more quickly.
Europe does have advantages. These include :
Its strong position in Ambient Intelligence, allowing it to set infrastructure standards;
High levels of research in some major multinational companies, academia and, in particular, some outstanding research institutes;
Greater inclination for its companies to join forces and co-operate in all kinds of joint R&D programmes at the national, international and EU level; and
A single market that should be of particular advantage for indigenous European companies.
Key recommendations for Europe
The MEDEA+ ATRM core team considered the following roadmap recommendations as the most important :
Sustain innovative research in mobile communications and multimedia to capitalise on Europe?s leading position in these fields by using platform-based architectures. This will involve chipmakers and others joining forces to reinforce European leadership.
Set up a European position that leads to a world standard for an interoperability framework for digital home networks. It should integrate mobile devices and broadcast services in a secure and seamless way, relying on IPv6 as unifying protocol.
Develop an integrated system for personal health care comprising a network of advanced, non-obtrusive wearable health monitoring sensors with algorithms enabling local intelligence in Personal Assistants.
Arrive at a coherent set of standards enabling the interoperability of wearable devices to establish a leading European position in the development, production and marketing of such products.
To maintain European leadership in the communications access market by developing broadband system-on-chip and wireless platforms supporting multi-standard equipment. Efforts should cover access technologies and broadband content delivery.
Set up innovative technology for power semiconductors to maintain global competitiveness versus Japan and the USA on technology and China on cost. This should be industry lead but is only possible with strong public funding.
Maintain independence in all security products segments as Europe cannot rely on products provided by foreign countries. If not, there will be no way for Europe to maintain confidentiality of its activities and to lever its independence and leadership.
Develop flexible and scalable platforms for automotive electronic control units to cut time to market and reduce costs. This is essential to maintain European leadership in the automotive electronics segment where it has quite a strong position.
